Caroline's Weekly Market Review

Ahead of this week's highly important Fed meeting, there was little significant news last week. The US plans for Syria will take some time to decide, so it had little influence on mortgage rates. The majority of the economic data released last week fell short of expectations, which helped mortgage rates end the week a little lower.

The last major economic growth data before Wednesday's Fed meeting, the Retail Sales report, showed a modest pace of growth. As was the case with last week's Employment data, it is fortunate to have steady growth, but expectations were for greater strength. Consumer Sentiment, which measures consumer expectations for future economic growth, dropped from recent multi-year highs. Investors have been closely watching the Jobless Claims reports in recent weeks for hints about the performance of the labor market, but this week's data was rendered inaccurate by a very unusual issue. Labor Department officials announced that two states were upgrading their computer systems and were unable to collect all the claims during the week.

The Retail Sales report was essentially the last data which could significantly influence the Fed's decision this week. Investors have now set their expectations. Despite the modest pace of economic growth, investors anticipate that the Fed will begin to taper its bond purchases, but now by a relatively small amount. The consensus is that the Fed will scale back from its current pace of $85 billion per month of combined Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases to $70 or $75 billion per month. Some investors expect the Fed to reduce only Treasury purchases, while others think it will be split. Investors also will be interested in hearing how the Fed will determine future changes in the bond purchase program.

The long awaited, highly anticipated Fed statement will come out on Wednesday around 2:00 et. A press conference with Fed Chief Bernanke will follow at 2:30 et. There almost certainly will be a large reaction in the mortgage market to the statement. The other economic events next week will struggle to compete for attention. Industrial Production will be released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Tuesday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers. Housing Starts will be released on Wednesday, and the Existing Home Sales report is scheduled for Thursday. Philly Fed and Empire State will round out the Economic Calendar.