Caroline's Weekly Market Review

Caroline's Weekly Market Review

 

Last week's key economic data showed that the performance of the economy in January was weaker than expected. The shortfalls caused stocks to decline and mortgage rates to improve, but the impact was surprisingly small.

Both the Employment report and the ISM Manufacturing data saw big misses. Against a consensus forecast of 185K, the economy added just 113K jobs in January. Also disappointing, many investors had hoped to see a large upward revision to the weak December reading, but it was little changed. The ISM national manufacturing index declined sharply to 51.3, far below the consensus of 56.0. For perspective, the increase in jobs reflects improvement in the labor market, and readings above 50.0 indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector. The issue is that the pace of economic growth has slowed.

The relatively minor impact of this week's data must be considered in light of the performance of the stock and mortgage markets so far this year. Entering the week, stocks had experienced significant losses, as the Dow was down roughly 5% in January. Similarly, mortgage rates have seen significant improvement since the start of the year. To some degree, investors were already positioned for weak data this week. In addition, questions about the effect of unusually severe weather caused some investors to question how accurately recent data reflects the underlying strength of the economy.

This week, Janet Yellen, the new Fed chair, will testify before Congress on Tuesday and Thursday, and her comments could influence mortgage rates. The most significant economic report will be the Retail Sales data on Thursday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Before that, the JOLTS report, measuring job openings and labor turnover, will come out on Tuesday. Industrial Production, Import Prices, and Consumer Sentiment will be released on Friday. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Can I use my tax refund towards a down payment on a home?

It is tax refund time. Many people ask us if tax refunds can be used to pay for a mortgage down payment or closing costs.

The answer is YES!

All a borrower needs to do to document the tax refund is to provide a copy of the refund check and a bank statement showing that the refund has been deposited into their account. If the refund was automatically deposited into their account, they won’t have a copy of the check, but the notation on their bank statement will show that it is a tax refund. In the case of automatic deposits, the only documentation necessary is the bank statement.

The money does NOT have to be “seasoned”, meaning it has been in their account for 60 days. As soon as the refund has been deposited, it can be used to pay the down payment or closing costs. Some lenders may want to verify tax transcripts with the IRS before the funds can be counted.


So if you are thinking of buying or selling a home,
Call Caroline S. Farmer, 803-707-9997
Kwest Mortgage Group/Independent Mortgage Professional

Caroline's Weekly Market Review

 

Bad news for stocks was good news for bonds again last week. Weaker than expected economic data hurt stocks and helped mortgage rates improve to the best levels since Thanksgiving.

At the start of the year, investors were optimistic that the momentum in economic growth seen during the second half of 2013 would continue during 2014. So far, though, the economic data has been disappointing. The Employment report set the tone early in the month. Then the shortfall in China caused global stock markets to fall. The US economic data released this week was weaker than expected as well. Durable Orders, Home Sales, Personal Income, and Jobless Claims all contained downside surprises. That said, it's difficult to determine how much the unusually severe weather experienced this winter affected the data.

The last Fed meeting, when the Fed decided to begin to scale back its bond purchases, was a major market moving event. There was little drama in this Wednesday's Fed meeting, however. As expected, the Fed announced that it will scale back its bond purchases by another $10 billion to $65 billion per month. The Fed statement was very similar to the prior statement. According to the Fed, "growth in economic activity picked up" in recent quarters. In other Fed news, Janet Yellen takes over as Fed Chair starting February 1. Investors expect that the Fed under her leadership will look and act very similar to the Bernanke Fed.

The important monthly Employment report will come out on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before that, ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will come out on Monday. ADP Employment and ISM Services will be released on Wednesday. Factory Orders, Productivity, and the Trade Balance will round out the schedule. Investors also will be keeping a close eye on indicators of economic growth around the world.